FED:Leaders are put to the Twister test

AAP General News (Australia)
08-27-2010
FED:Leaders are put to the Twister test

By Paul Osborne, Senior Political Writer

CANBERRA, Aug 27 AAP - Like players of the party game Twister, the two top political
leaders are facing unexpected tests of flexibility while a group of independents calls
the shots.

The aim of the party game is to bend this way and that until one player is left the
victor, but there could also be a spectacular collapse - with a fresh federal election
in months.

Three country independents - Tony Windsor, Rob Oakeshott and Bob Katter - along with
Australian Green Adam Bandt and a fourth independent Andrew Wilkie have the power to deliver
minority government to Labor or the coalition.

With Australia facing its first hung federal parliament in more than 70 years, Prime
Minister Julia Gillard appears to have the upper hand, but the state of play is precarious.

Gillard has given the three country independents an iron-clad guarantee to run a three-year
term with an election date in late 2013.

On Monday she'll reveal just how far Labor is planning to go to meet the trio's list
of demands for reforms to how parliament and elections work.

One of those demands - having Treasury cost Labor and coalition election policies and
show the impact on the budget bottom line - has sent Opposition Leader Tony Abbott into
contortions.

Abbott has refused the request, arguing that the Treasury leaks like a grass bucket
and the independents should be happy with the coalition's figures, double-checked by a
private firm with Liberal links.

Labor is making sure no stone goes unturned in trying to woo enough MPs to get to the
magic number of 76 seats in the 150-seat lower house.

The prime minister personally handed over folders with details of how Labor's election
promises would benefit the electorates of her potential queenmakers.

But no one will know the final numbers until September 3, when the deadline for receipt
of postal votes expires.

Windsor has made it clear he'd have no problem going back to the polls if a deal can't
be struck on a new kind of politics, saying it's time to shift away from the old politics
of "two dogs barking".

Unsurprisingly, Abbott argues the only way to get "new politics" is to get a new government.

Bandt, who is not party to the seven-point plan, says he's inclined to back Labor because
of the coalition's scepticism over climate change.

The Queenslander with the 10-gallon hat, Bob Katter, says he's open minded about who governs.

But he says he doesn't want a mining tax or a price on carbon - both of which are sure
to be part of the mix in a potential Labor-Green alliance.

However, he's not fond of his former party - The Nationals, the Liberal Party's junior
coalition partner.

On election night the Kennedy MP hit back at "personal attacks" by Nationals Leader
Warren Truss and described Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce as "... a similar piece of
incredible unfortunateness".

Windsor, who contested and lost a Nationals pre-selection contest 20 years ago, has
a deep-seated hatred of his former party.

But he, too, is unwilling to show his hand until the final parliament numbers are clear
and the prime minister gives the independents' seven-point plan a good look.

Oakeshott, the beaming independent member for Lyne, wants radical reform of parliament
- even suggesting a future cabinet could include independent, Labor and coalition MPs.

He's even suggested a bipartisan slogan, telling the National Press Club: "We can,
if we want to, move forward with real action."

Former intelligence analyst Andrew Wilkie, an independent likely to win Labor's Tasmanian
seat of Denison, is not backward in coming forward with his agenda.

He's meeting with the prime minister in Melbourne on Saturday and Mr Abbott in Canberra
on Monday, seeking a better Hobart hospital and action on the blight of poker machines.

But he says it's not about pork-barrelling - it's all about the "underfunding of southern
Tasmania".

Another wildcard in the mix is West Australian Nationals MP-elect Tony Crook.

The coalition is counting on Mr Crook as one of their players, but he hasn't guaranteed
support for all of its policies.

He has been on the record as saying WA wants a fairer share of federal funding. However,
he admits it's "not very likely" he'll be talking with Gillard.

But what do the people watching the game think?

A Galaxy poll has shown 55 per cent of voters in the three country independent seats
want a coalition government.

Labor is arguing that getting entangled with the coalition is more likely to lead to
an early election.

The Greens will hold the balance of power in the Senate from July next year, and conventional
wisdom suggests Labor would have an easier time getting laws through the upper house than
the coalition.

If, under an Abbott government, legislation keeps falling over, the coalition could
get a double-dissolution trigger.

And such elections, historically, give the parties' solid majorities and toss out independents
- removing their bargaining power.

Now that would be a twist in the tail.

AAP pjo/sb/rl/jl/de

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